Market Trends & C&I Opportunities (c. 2023–2025)
Beyond formal tariffs and regulations, several market trends are shaping how Commercial & Industrial (C&I) customers procure and manage energy. Understanding and leveraging these trends presents significant opportunities for cost savings and achieving sustainability goals.
Trend 1: Growing Adoption of Dynamic Pricing & Real-Time Rates
- Momentum towards rates reflecting real-time system costs (TOU, RTP, Day-Ahead Hourly).
- Driven by regulatory push (e.g., CA, IL pilots/mandates) and enabled by universal C&I smart metering (AMI).
- Opportunity: Customers with operational flexibility (shifting schedules, pre-cooling, EV charging) can achieve significant savings by responding to price signals.
- Mitigation: Automated demand response via building controls (EMS) and IoT devices makes dynamic rates less risky by enabling automatic load shifting/curtailment when prices spike (transactive energy concepts).
- Brokers can add value by analyzing interval data to compare dynamic vs. flat rates and integrating price response strategies.
Trend 2: Sophisticated Index-Plus (Block & Index) Procurement
- Increasing C&I adoption of hybrid strategies to manage volatility (fuel prices, capacity auctions).
- Block-and-Index: Fixing a portion ("block") of load at a set price, floating the remainder ("swing") on a market index. Provides baseload hedge plus market exposure.
- Laddered Contracting: Layering multiple, shorter-term contracts over time to dollar-cost average.
- Opportunity: Allows customization based on risk tolerance, potentially achieving lower average costs than full fixed-price contracts, especially if market timing is advantageous.
- Brokers transition from simple contract negotiation to portfolio advisors, managing blocks and index exposure. Modern platforms facilitate settlement.
Trend 3: Deeper DER Integration & Onsite Generation
- Driven by falling costs (solar, batteries), incentives (ITC for storage), resilience needs, and sustainability goals.
- DERs directly impact tariff optimization (peak shaving, demand charge reduction, TOU arbitrage).
- Battery Storage (BESS): Gaining traction for peak shaving, TOU arbitrage, and participating in DR programs or wholesale markets (via FERC 2222 aggregation).
- Other DERs: Solar PV (impacted by NEM reforms), CHP, fuel cells, thermal storage, microgrids for resilience.
- Opportunity: Combine DER operation with smart procurement. Brokers/consultants increasingly act as DER advisors, evaluating ROI and navigating incentives/interconnection. PPAs/leases for onsite assets offer procurement alternatives.
- See also: Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) Knowledge Base
Trend 4: Mainstreaming of ESG-Aligned Procurement
- Corporate ESG targets driving demand for 100% renewable or carbon-free energy.
- In Regulated Markets: Utility Green Tariff programs offer options (e.g., sleeved PPAs via utility rate).
- In Deregulated Markets: Common approaches include:
- Virtual PPAs (vPPAs) with offsite projects + RECs.
- Green supplier products (bundled RECs - check sourcing/compliance).
- Direct PPAs or onsite generation.
- Emerging Trend: Granular tracking (e.g., 24/7 hourly carbon-free matching) sought by ESG leaders.
- Opportunity: Brokers facilitate customized green solutions, ensuring REC ownership/retirement and compliance with marketing rules. Renewable energy can also act as a price hedge.
Capitalizing on these trends requires a holistic approach, integrating procurement with load management, DER strategy, and sustainability goals. Brokers who adapt to provide data-driven, comprehensive advice across these areas will be best positioned to serve C&I clients effectively in the coming years.